19/2004 - 13 February 2004

 

Flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2003

Euro-zone GDP up by 0.3%, EU15 GDP up by 0.4%

+0.6% and +0.9% respectively compared to the fourth quarter of 2002

 

GDP grew by 0.3% in the euro-zone1 and by 0.4% in the EU15 during the fourth quarter of 2003, compared to the previous quarter, according to flash2 estimates published today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the third quarter of 20033, growth rates were 0.4% for both zones.

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 0.9% in the EU15 in the fourth quarter 2003, after +0.3% and +0.6% respectively in the previous quarter3.

During the fourth quarter 2003, US GDP increased by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter, after +2.0% in the third quarter 2003. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2002, GDP grew by 4.3% in the US, after +3.6% in the previous quarter.

Over the whole year 2003, GDP grew by 0.4% in the euro-zone and by 0.7% in the EU15, compared to +0.9% and +1.0% respectively for the year 2002.

 

1           Euro-zone: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.

2           The flash estimate of the GDP growth rate, at 1995 constant prices and derived from seasonally adjusted data, for the euro-zone and the EU15 is calculated by using as indicators GDP figures referring to all Member States for which data are already available (see table) as well as, for the reference quarter, related indicators for Spain for which GDP data are not yet available.

Simulations and previously published flash estimates have shown the flash estimation procedure to be reliable. As an example, over the last 12 quarters, the flash estimate of the growth rate on the previous quarter for euro-zone GDP 8 times correctly anticipated the growth rate published in the first estimate and 4 times differed by 0.1%. For the growth rate on the same quarter of the previous year, the flash 6 times correctly anticipated the first estimate, 4 times differed by 0.1% and twice by 0.2%.

3           According to the flash methodology, all euro-zone and EU15 GDP figures for earlier quarters are not revised, so the growth rates till the third quarter 2003 published in News Release 7/2004 of 15 January 2004 remain unchanged (for more details of the flash methodology please refer to News Release 55/2003 of 15 May 2003).

4           In addition to this flash estimate, Eurostat will issue two estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter 2003: the first estimate on 4 March 2004, the second on 15 April 2004.

 


Issued by:

Eurostat Press Office

 

Philippe BAUTIER

 

BECH Building

L-2920 LUXEMBOURG

 

Tel: +352-4301-33 444

Fax: +352-4301-35 349

eurostat-pressoffice@cec.eu.int

 

Eurostat news releases on the Internet:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat

For further information on data:

 

Roberto BARCELLAN

Ingo KUHNERT

Luca PROTTI

 

Tel.: +352-4301-35 802

         +352-4301-35 234

         +352-4301-35 005

Fax: +352-4301-33 879

 

roberto.barcellan@cec.eu.int

ingo.kuhnert@cec.eu.int

luca.protti@cec.eu.int


 

Growth rates of GDP in volume

(based on seasonally adjusted data)

 

Percentage change compared to the previous quarter

Percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous year

 

2003

2003

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Euro-zone

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

0.1

0.3

0.6

EU15

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.9

Member States

Belgium

0.2

-0.1

0.5

:

1.5

0.8

0.8

:

Denmark

0.3

-0.2

-0.2

:

0.4

-0.2

-0.5

:

Germany

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greece

2.9

0.5

1.8

:

4.3

4.5

5.0

:

Spain

0.5

0.7

0.7

:

2.2

2.3

2.4

:

France

0.0

-0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

-0.4

-0.3

:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ireland

-1.4

2.3

-1.3

:

0.8

2.4

0.0

:

Italy

-0.2

-0.1

0.5

0.0

0.7

0.2

0.5

0.1

Luxembourg

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Netherlands

-0.3

-0.5

0.0

0.3

-0.2

-1.2

-1.2

-0.5

Austria

0.1

0.3

0.3

:

0.8

0.3

0.8

:

Portugal

0.2

0.1

-0.5

:

-1.3

-2.1

-0.9

:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finland

-0.7

0.8

0.8

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.5

1.0

Sweden

0.4

0.3

0.5

:

1.6

1.2

1.5

:

United Kingdom

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.5

EFTA countries

Norway

-0.1

-0.2

0.8

:

0.1

-1.8

0.2

:

Switzerland

-1.2

0.0

0.4

:

-0.5

-0.9

-0.7

:

Main economic partners

United States

0.5

0.8

2.0

1.0

2.1

2.4

3.6

4.3

Japan

0.5

0.9

0.6

:

2.9

3.0

2.3

:

Canada

0.6

-0.1

0.2

:

2.8

1.6

1.1

:

: Data not available