19/2004 -
Flash
estimates for the fourth quarter of 2003
+0.6%
and +0.9% respectively compared to the fourth quarter of 2002
GDP grew by 0.3% in the
euro-zone1 and by 0.4% in
the EU15 during the fourth quarter
of 2003, compared to the previous quarter, according to flash2
estimates published today by Eurostat,
the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the third quarter of
20033, growth rates were 0.4% for both zones.
Compared to the same
quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 0.9% in the EU15
in the fourth quarter 2003, after +0.3% and +0.6% respectively in the
previous quarter3.
During the fourth
quarter 2003, US GDP increased by 1.0%
compared to the previous quarter, after +2.0% in the third quarter 2003.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2002, GDP grew by 4.3% in the
Over the whole year
2003, GDP grew by 0.4% in the euro-zone
and by 0.7% in the EU15, compared to
+0.9% and +1.0% respectively for the year 2002.
1
Euro-zone:
2
The flash
estimate of the GDP growth rate, at 1995 constant prices and derived from
seasonally adjusted data, for the euro-zone and the EU15 is calculated by using
as indicators GDP figures referring to all Member States for which data are
already available (see table) as well as, for the reference quarter, related
indicators for Spain for which GDP data are not yet available.
Simulations
and previously published flash estimates have shown the flash estimation
procedure to be reliable. As an example, over the last 12 quarters, the flash
estimate of the growth rate on the previous quarter for euro-zone GDP 8 times
correctly anticipated the growth rate published in the first estimate and 4
times differed by 0.1%. For the growth rate on the same quarter of the previous
year, the flash 6 times correctly anticipated the first estimate, 4 times
differed by 0.1% and twice by 0.2%.
3
According to
the flash methodology, all euro-zone and EU15 GDP figures for earlier quarters
are not revised, so the growth rates till the third quarter 2003 published in
News Release 7/2004 of 15 January 2004 remain unchanged (for more details of
the flash methodology please refer to News Release 55/2003 of 15 May 2003).
4
In addition to
this flash estimate, Eurostat will issue two estimates of GDP for the fourth
quarter 2003: the first estimate on
Issued
by:
Eurostat Press Office
Philippe BAUTIER
L-2920 LUXEMBOURG
Tel: +352-4301-33 444
Fax: +352-4301-35 349
eurostat-pressoffice@cec.eu.int
Eurostat
news releases on the Internet:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat
For
further information on data:
Roberto BARCELLAN
Ingo KUHNERT
Luca PROTTI
Tel.: +352-4301-35 802
+352-4301-35
234
+352-4301-35
005
Fax: +352-4301-33 879
Growth rates
of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data) |
||||||||
|
Percentage
change compared to the previous quarter |
Percentage
change compared to the same quarter of the previous year |
||||||
|
2003 |
2003 |
||||||
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Euro-zone |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
EU15 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
Member States |
||||||||
|
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
: |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
: |
|
0.3 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
: |
0.4 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
: |
|
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.9 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
: |
4.3 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
: |
|
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
: |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
: |
|
0.0 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-1.4 |
2.3 |
-1.3 |
: |
0.8 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
: |
|
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.3 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
: |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
: |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
: |
-1.3 |
-2.1 |
-0.9 |
: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
|
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
: |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
: |
|
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
EFTA countries |
||||||||
|
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.8 |
: |
0.1 |
-1.8 |
0.2 |
: |
|
-1.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
: |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
: |
Main economic partners |
||||||||
|
0.5 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
|
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
: |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
: |
|
0.6 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
: |
2.8 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
: |
: Data not available